Predicting College Performance Among First-Year Education Students: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Academic Achievement, Aptitude, and Entrance Examination Scores

This study examined the extent to which senior high school grades in Mathematics, English, and Science, together with aptitude test scores and college entrance examination results, predict the academic performance of first-year education students in a state university in Iloilo Province during the Academic Year 2024–2025. Employing a quantitative cross-sectional research design, the study utilized proportional stratified random sampling to select 177 first-year education students from five university campuses. Secondary data were obtained from institutional records, including senior high school grades, aptitude test scores, entrance examination results, and first-semester General Weighted Average (GWA). Descriptive statistics, Pearson’s correlation, multiple regression analysis, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), and mediation analysis using Hayes’ PROCESS Macro were employed to analyze the data. Findings revealed that students demonstrated outstanding academic achievement in English and Science, and very satisfactory performance in Mathematics. However, aptitude and entrance examination scores reflected only moderate levels of performance. Correlation analysis indicated significant negative relationships between aptitude test scores and college GWA (r = −.412, p < .001) and between entrance examination scores and college GWA (r = −.398, p < .001), indicating that higher standardized test performance was associated with better academic achievement. Multiple regression analysis further revealed that Mathematics grades (β = −.241, p < .01), aptitude test scores (β = −.317, p < .001), and entrance examination scores (β = −.286, p < .01) significantly predicted college performance. Mediation analysis confirmed that aptitude and entrance examination scores partially mediated the relationship between senior high school grades and college GWA. Based on the findings, a Mathematics Enhancement Project (MEP) was proposed to strengthen students’ quantitative competencies and college readiness.