Abstract
Ambient air pollution remains a critical determinant of pediatric respiratory morbidity across industrialized landscapes of Northern India. This study evaluated the spatial relationship between ambient air pollutants—specifically fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)—and the incidence of pediatric asthma among children aged 0 to 14 years across 86 administrative sub-districts within the National Capital Region and adjacent industrial belts of Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. Utilizing ground-level regulatory monitoring data combined with high-resolution satellite-derived exposure models, we developed ordinary least squares (OLS), spatial error models (SEM), and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) frameworks to account for spatial autocorrelation and non-stationarity. The analysis revealed marked geographic disparities, with pediatric asthma incidence ranging from 14.2 to 48.7 cases per 1,000 child-years. Both PM2.5 (mean exposure: 98.4 ± 24.1 μg/m³) and NO2 (mean exposure: 42.6 ± 11.8 μg/m³) exhibited statistically significant positive associations with asthma incidence. MGWR outperformed global regression models (adjusted R² = 0.74 vs. 0.51), delineating localized vulnerability hotspots where industrial emissions, heavy vehicular transit corridors, and low socioeconomic status compounded health risks. These findings demonstrate that pediatric respiratory vulnerability to air pollutants is spatially heterogeneous, highlighting the urgent need for decentralized, zone-specific environmental health interventions and targeted air quality mitigation policies across Northern India.
