Concurrent, Performance-Based Methodology for Increasing the Accuracy and Certainty of Short-Term Neural Prediction Systems

Concurrent, Performance-Based Methodology for Increasing the Accuracy and Certainty of Short-Term Neural Prediction Systems

Milić, Miljana;Milojković, Jelena;Marković, Ivan;Nikolić, Petar;
Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience 2019 Vol. 2019 pp. -
301
milic2019concurrentcomputational

Abstract

Accurate prediction of the short time series with highly irregular behavior is a challenging task found in many areas of modern science. Such data fluctuations are not systematic and hardly predictable. In recent years, artificial neural networks have widely been exploited for those purposes. Although it is possible to model nonlinear behavior of short time series by using ANNs, very often they are not able to handle all events equally well. Therefore, alternative approaches have to be applied. In this study, a new, concurrent, performance-based methodology that combines best ANN topologies in order to decrease the forecasting errors and increase the forecasting certainty is proposed. The proposed approach is verified on three different data sets: the Serbian Gross National Income time series, the municipal traffic flow for a particular observation point, and the daily electric load consumption time series. It is shown that the method can significantly increase the forecasting accuracy of the individual networks, regardless of their topologies, which makes the methodology more applicable. For quantitative comparison of the accuracy of the proposed methodology with that of similar methodologies, a series of additional forecasting experiments that include a state-of-the-art ARIMA modelling and a combination of ANN and linear regression forecasting have been conducted.

Citation

ID: 69675
Ref Key: milic2019concurrentcomputational
Use this key to autocite in SciMatic or Thesis Manager

References

Blockchain Verification

Account:
NFT Contract Address:
0x95644003c57E6F55A65596E3D9Eac6813e3566dA
Article ID:
69675
Unique Identifier:
5999e419c7c954be7a663dc55520f87f
Network:
Scimatic Chain (ID: 481)
Loading...
Blockchain Readiness Checklist
Authors
Abstract
Journal Name
Year
Title
5/5
Creates 1,000,000 NFT tokens for this article
Token Features:
  • ERC-1155 Standard NFT
  • 1 Million Supply per Article
  • Transferable via MetaMask
  • Permanent Blockchain Record
Blockchain QR Code
Scan with Saymatik Web3.0 Wallet

Saymatik Web3.0 Wallet