Assessing the potential impacts of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution and proposing sound control strategies are significant global challenges. However, few studies have provided insights into the quantitative risk analysis and efficient management of NPS pollution. This study formulated four evaluation criteria to characterize both the generation and migration of diffuse phosphorus. Multicriteria analysis and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were combined to develop a NPS pollution risk index model for the evaluation of the potential phosphorus loss at the basin scale. The proposed model is a simple and efficient tool that considers most factors that affect diffuse phosphorus. In the GIS environment, the spatial distribution of the risk index of diffuse phosphorus could be mapped and visualized in the Huai River Basin. With the natural breaks classification method, the study area was divided into the following five regions: a potentially polluted region (3.5%), a lightly polluted region (15.4%), a moderately polluted region (40.7%), a highly polluted region (31.5%), and a seriously polluted region (8.9%). Based on land use composition, geographical location, and sources of diffuse phosphorus of these five regions, corresponding prevention measures were introduced, thus facilitating the management of NPS pollution for policy makers.