Recommendation services bear great importance in e-commerce, shopping, tourism, and social media, as they aid the user in navigating through the items that are most relevant to their needs. In order to build recommender systems, organizations log the item consumption in their user sessions by using different sensors. For instance, Web sites use Web data loggers, museums and shopping centers rely on user in-door positioning systems to register user movement, and Location-Based Social Networks use Global Positioning System for out-door user tracking. Most organizations do not have a detailed history of previous activities or purchases by the user. Hence, in most cases recommenders propose items that are similar to the most recent ones viewed in the current user session. The corresponding task is called session based, and when only the last item is considered, it is referred to as item-to-item recommendation. A natural way of building next-item recommendations relies on item-to-item similarities and item-to-item transitions in the form of "people who viewed this, also viewed" lists. Such methods, however, depend on local information for the given item pairs, which can result in unstable results for items with short transaction history, especially in connection with the cold-start items that recently appeared and had no time yet to accumulate a sufficient number of transactions. In this paper, we give new algorithms by defining a global probabilistic similarity model of all the items based on Random Fields. We give a generative model for the item interactions based on arbitrary distance measures over the items, including explicit, implicit ratings and external metadata to estimate and predict item-to-item transition probabilities. We exploit our new model in two different item similarity algorithms, as well as a feature representation in a recurrent neural network based recommender. Our experiments on various publicly available data sets show that our new model outperforms simple similarity baseline methods and combines well with recent item-to-item and deep learning recommenders under several different performance metrics.