There is well-documented relationship between industrial development and environmental pollution, but there are no enough studies that have predicted development impacts on pollutants emission. In the current study, impacts of three development periods of Bojnourd cement factory on pollutants emission (CO, SO, NO, and PM) were investigated using the AUSTAL 2000 model. The collected emission data during 19 years were classified for each period and analyzed via the model, separately. Two sets of monitoring point (each contains 5 points) determined at the model; first set for estimation of pollutants concentration in residential areas (three villages, one suburban, and one city), and the second set for model validity assessment which located near the factory. •According to model results, the second development period had the highest emission load per unit area for PM and SO by 164% and 262%, respectively. However, by applying the bag filter at the beginning of the third period, SO and PM concentrations were reduced significantly to the same as the first period.•Unlike the two previous pollutants, emissions load of NO and CO per unit area were increased in both the second period (167% and 154%, respectively) and third period (182% and 337%, respectively). Moreover, the model showed a good agreement compared with the field measured data that it could be usable to predict pollutants emission.•The findings of this paper prove the predicting importance of the emissions prior to construction or any stages of industries upgrading and development. In other words, it emphasizes environmental protection during economic boost to maintain harmony between nature and sustainable development. Also, the model showed how the use of pollution control equipment (bag filter) during development can be effective to reduce the pollutants emission.