A mathematical model has been developed that describes the changes of pyropheophytin a (pyphya) in virgin olive oil (VOO). The model has been created using multivariate statistical procedures and is used in the prediction of the stability and loss of freshness of VOO. An earlier thermokinetic study (Aparicio-Ruiz, R.; Mı́nguez-Mosquera, M. I.; Gandul-Rojas, B. Thermal degradation kinetics of chlorophyll pigments in virgin olive oils. 1. Compounds of series a. J. Agric. Food Chem.2010, 58, 6200-6208) that looked at the characterization of the degradation of pheophytin a (phya), the main chlorophyll compound in VOO and a precursor of pyphya, allowed the authors to obtain the kinetic parameters necessary for mathematically expressing the percentage of pyphya, according to the time and temperature of storage using the Arrhenius model. Data regarding the percentage of pyphya obtained during the actual degradation of VOO in darkness, at room temperature and with a limited supply of oxygen, has allowed the mathematical prediction model to be validated. Using average monthly temperatures in the calculation of kinetic constants, theoretical data are obtained that are generally found to be within 95% confidence levels of experimental data.