analysis of economic burden of seasonal influenza: an actuarial based conceptual model

analysis of economic burden of seasonal influenza: an actuarial based conceptual model

;S. S. N. Perera
Chemico-biological interactions 2017 Vol. 2017 pp. -
151
perera2017journalanalysis

Abstract

Analysing the economic burden of the seasonal influenza is highly essential due to the large number of outbreaks in recent years. Mathematical and actuarial models can be considered as management tools to understand the dynamical behavior, predict the risk, and compute it. This study is an attempt to develop conceptual model to investigate the economic burden due to seasonal influenza. The compartment SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model is used to capture the dynamical behavior of influenza. Considering the current investment and future medical care expenditure as premium payment and benefit (claim), respectively, the insurance and actuarial based conceptual model is proposed to model the present economic burden due to the spread of influenza. Simulation is carried out to demonstrate the variation of the present economic burden with respect to model parameters. The sensitivity of the present economic burden is studied with respect to the risk of disease spread. The basic reproduction is used to identify the risk of disease spread. Impact of the seasonality is studied by introducing the seasonally varying infection rate. The proposed model provides theoretical background to investigate the economic burden of seasonal influenza.

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0x95644003c57E6F55A65596E3D9Eac6813e3566dA
Article ID:
258888
Unique Identifier:
10.1155/2017/4264737
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Scimatic Chain (ID: 481)
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