using multi-state markov models to identify credit card risk

using multi-state markov models to identify credit card risk

;Daniel Evangelista Régis;Rinaldo Artes
Neotropical entomology 2016 Vol. 26 pp. 330-344
178
rgis2016productionusing

Abstract

Abstract The main interest of this work is to analyze the application of multi-state Markov models to evaluate credit card risk by investigating the characteristics of different state transitions in client-institution relationships over time, thereby generating score models for various purposes. We also used logistic regression models to compare the results with those obtained using multi-state Markov models. The models were applied to an actual database of a Brazilian financial institution. In this application, multi-state Markov models performed better than logistic regression models in predicting default risk, and logistic regression models performed better in predicting cancellation risk.

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0x95644003c57E6F55A65596E3D9Eac6813e3566dA
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246614
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10.1590/0103-6513.160814
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