Abstract: INTRODUCTION: In Brazil, culling of seropositive dogs is one of the recommended strategies to control visceral leishmaniasis. Since infectiousness is correlated with clinical signs, control measures targeting symptomatic dogs could be more effective. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out among 1,410 dogs, predictive models were developed based on clinical signs and an indirect immunofluorescence antibody test. RESULTS: The validated predictive model showed sensitivity and specificity of 86.5% and 70.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models could be used as tools to aid control programs in focusing on a smaller fraction of dogs contributing more to infection dissemination.