evaluating the impact of environmental temperature on global highly pathogenic avian influenza (hpai) h5n1 outbreaks in domestic poultry

evaluating the impact of environmental temperature on global highly pathogenic avian influenza (hpai) h5n1 outbreaks in domestic poultry

;Zhijie Zhang;Dongmei Chen;Yue Chen;Bo Wang;Yi Hu;Jie Gao;Liqian Sun;Rui Li;Chenglong Xiong
archives of biochemistry and biophysics 2014 Vol. 11 pp. 6388-6399
191
zhang2014internationalevaluating

Abstract

The emergence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A virus subtype H5N1 in Asia, Europe and Africa has had an enormously socioeconomic impact and presents an important threat to human health because of its efficient animal-to-human transmission. Many factors contribute to the occurrence and transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus, but the role of environmental temperature remains poorly understood. Based on an approach of integrating a Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model and a Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model, we examined the specific impact of environmental temperature on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry around the globe during the period from 1 December 2003 to 31 December 2009. The results showed that higher environmental temperature was a significant risk factor for earlier occurrence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry, especially for a temperature of 25 °C. Its impact varied with epidemic waves (EWs), and the magnitude of the impact tended to increase over EWs.

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222317
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10.3390/ijerph110606388
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