Abstract
Although the consequences of floods are strongly related to their peak
discharges, a statistical classification of flood events that only depends
on these peaks may not be sufficient for flood risk assessments. In many
cases, the flood risk depends on a number of event characteristics. In case
of an extreme flood, the whole river basin may be affected instead of a
single watershed, and there will be superposition of peak discharges from
adjoining catchments. These peaks differ in size and timing according to the
spatial distribution of precipitation and watershed-specific processes of
flood formation. Thus, the spatial characteristics of flood events should be
considered as stochastic processes. Hence, there is a need for a
multivariate statistical approach that represents the spatial
interdependencies between floods from different watersheds and their
coincidences. This paper addresses the question how these spatial
interdependencies can be quantified. Each flood event is not only assessed
with regard to its local conditions but also according to its
spatio-temporal pattern within the river basin. In this paper we
characterise the coincidence of floods by trivariate Joe-copula and
pair-copulas. Their ability to link the marginal distributions of the
variates while maintaining their dependence structure characterizes them as
an adequate method. The results indicate that the trivariate copula model is
able to represent the multivariate probabilities of the occurrence of
simultaneous flood peaks well. It is suggested that the approach of this
paper is very useful for the risk-based design of retention basins as it
accounts for the complex spatio-temporal interactions of floods.
Citation
ID:
218901
Ref Key:
schulte2015proceedingsextensive