on the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to west african rainfall

on the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to west african rainfall

;D. L. González II;M. P. Angus;I. K. Tetteh;G. A. Bello;K. Padmanabhan;S. V. Pendse;S. Srinivas;J. Yu;F. Semazzi;V. Kumar;N. F. Samatova
BMC research notes 2015 Vol. 22 pp. 33-46
82
ii2015nonlinearon

Abstract

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. These relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.

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215103
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10.5194/npg-22-33-2015
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