Abstract
Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been
applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive
climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability.
Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not
all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven
approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help
explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to
facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the
modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We
applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso
multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships
within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus
result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion
of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that
modulate Sahel rainfall. These relationships fall into two categories:
well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the
relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative
links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.
Citation
ID:
215103
Ref Key:
ii2015nonlinearon