a stochastic model for the hiv/aids dynamic evolution
;Giuseppe Di Biase;Guglielmo D'Amico;Arturo Di Girolamo;Jacques Janssen;Stefano Iacobelli;Nicola Tinari;Raimondo Manca
journal of power sources2007Vol. 2007pp. -
142
biase2007mathematicala
Abstract
This paper analyses the HIV/AIDS dynamic evolution as defined by CD4 levels, from
a macroscopic point of view, by means of homogeneous semi-Markov stochastic
processes. A large number of results have been obtained including the following
conditional probabilities: an infected patient will be in state j after a time t given that she/he entered at time 0 (starting time) in state i; that she/he will survive up to a time t, given the starting state; that she/he will continue to remain in
the starting state up to time t; that she/he reach stage j of the disease in the next transition, if the previous state was i and no state change occurred up to time t. The immunological states considered are based on CD4 counts
and our data refer to patients selected from a series of 766 HIV-positive intravenous drug users.