Incremental explosive analysis (IEA) is addressed as an applicable method for performance-based assessment of stiffened and unstiffened cylindrical shells subjected to underwater explosion (UNDEX) loading. In fact, this method is inspired by the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) which is a known parametric analysis method in the field of earthquake engineering. This paper aims to introduce the application of IEA approach in UNDEX in order to estimate different limit states and deterministic assessment of cylindrical shells, considering the uncertainty of loading conditions. The local, bay, and general buckling modes are defined as limit states for performance calculation. Different standoff distances and depth parameters combining several loading conditions are considered. The explosive loading intensity is specified and scaled in several levels to force the structure through the entire range of its behavior. The results are plotted in terms of a damage measure (DM) versus selected intensity measure (IM). The statistical treatment of the obtained multi-IEA curves is performed to summarize the results in a predictive mode. Finally, the fragility curves as damage probability indicators of shells in UNDEX loading are extracted. Results show that the IEA is a promising method for performance-based assessment of cylindrical shells subjected to UNDEX loading.