Abstract
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) is one of the
suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when
insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a
maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas
concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than
today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from
today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling
Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the
problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different
climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for
evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and
temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of
magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6
LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to
constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM
experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary
conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the
ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity
experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with
land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of
individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the
relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative
climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.
Citation
ID:
188696
Ref Key:
kageyama2017geoscientificthe