a multivariate kernel approach to forecasting the variance covariance of stock market returns

a multivariate kernel approach to forecasting the variance covariance of stock market returns

;Ralf Becker;Adam Clements;Robert O'Neill
developmental cognitive neuroscience 2018 Vol. 6 pp. 7-
159
becker2018econometricsa

Abstract

This paper introduces a multivariate kernel based forecasting tool for the prediction of variance-covariance matrices of stock returns. The method introduced allows for the incorporation of macroeconomic variables into the forecasting process of the matrix without resorting to a decomposition of the matrix. The model makes use of similarity forecasting techniques and it is demonstrated that several popular techniques can be thought as a subset of this approach. A forecasting experiment demonstrates the potential for the technique to improve the statistical accuracy of forecasts of variance-covariance matrices.

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ID: 161850
Ref Key: becker2018econometricsa
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0x95644003c57E6F55A65596E3D9Eac6813e3566dA
Article ID:
161850
Unique Identifier:
10.3390/econometrics6010007
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Scimatic Chain (ID: 481)
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