high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood urea nitrogen, and serum creatinine can predict severe acute pancreatitis

high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood urea nitrogen, and serum creatinine can predict severe acute pancreatitis

;Wandong Hong;Suhan Lin;Maddalena Zippi;Wujun Geng;Simon Stock;Vincent Zimmer;Chunfang Xu;Mengtao Zhou
spectrochimica acta - part a: molecular and biomolecular spectroscopy 2017 Vol. 2017 pp. -
235
hong2017biomedhigh-density

Abstract

Background and Aims. Early prediction of disease severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) would be helpful for triaging patients to the appropriate level of care and intervention. The aim of the study was to develop a model able to predict Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP). Methods. A total of 647 patients with AP were enrolled. The demographic data, hematocrit, High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL-C) determinant at time of admission, Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN), and serum creatinine (Scr) determinant at time of admission and 24 hrs after hospitalization were collected and analyzed statistically. Results. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that HDL-C at admission and BUN and Scr at 24 hours (hrs) were independently associated with SAP. A logistic regression function (LR model) was developed to predict SAP as follows: −2.25–0.06 HDL-C (mg/dl) at admission + 0.06 BUN (mg/dl) at 24 hours + 0.66 Scr (mg/dl) at 24 hours. The optimism-corrected c-index for LR model was 0.832 after bootstrap validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for LR model for the prediction of SAP was 0.84. Conclusions. The LR model consists of HDL-C at admission and BUN and Scr at 24 hours, representing an additional tool to stratify patients at risk of SAP.

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159298
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10.1155/2017/1648385
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