forecasting inflation with the phillips curve: a dynamic model averaging approach for brazil

forecasting inflation with the phillips curve: a dynamic model averaging approach for brazil

;Diego Ferreira;Andreza Aparecida Palma
langenbeck's archives of surgery 2015 Vol. 69 pp. 451-465
202
ferreira2015revistaforecasting

Abstract

This paper proposes a generalized Phillips curve in order to forecast Brazilian inflation over the 2003:M1–2013:M10 period. To this end, we employ the Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) method, which allows for both model evolution and time-varying parameters. The procedure mainly consists in state-space representation and by Kalman filter estimation. Overall, the dynamic specifications deliver good inflation predictions for all the forecast horizons considered, underscoring the importance of time-varying features for forecasting exercises. As to the usefulness of the predictors on explaining the Brazilian inflation, there are evidences that the short- and long-term Phillips curve relationship may be rejected for Brazil while short- and medium-term exchange rate pass-through apparently has been decreasing in the last years.

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