the response of surface ozone to climate change over the eastern united states

the response of surface ozone to climate change over the eastern united states

;P. N. Racherla;P. J. Adams
Journal of agricultural and food chemistry 2008 Vol. 8 pp. 871-885
199
racherla2008atmosphericthe

Abstract

We investigate the response of surface ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) to future climate change in the eastern United States by performing simulations corresponding to present (1990s) and future (2050s) climates using an integrated model of global climate, tropospheric gas-phase chemistry, and aerosols. A future climate has been imposed using ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the IPCC SRES A2 scenario for the 2050s decade. Present-day anthropogenic emissions and CO<sub>2</sub>/CH<sub>4</sub> mixing ratios have been used in both simulations while climate-sensitive emissions were allowed to vary with the simulated climate. The severity and frequency of O<sub>3</sub> episodes in the eastern U.S. increased due to future climate change, primarily as a result of increased O<sub>3</sub> chemical production. The 95th percentile O<sub>3</sub> mixing ratio increased by 5 ppbv and the largest frequency increase occured in the 80&ndash;90 ppbv range; the US EPA's current 8-h ozone primary standard is 80 ppbv. The increased O<sub>3</sub> chemical production is due to increases in: 1) natural isoprene emissions; 2) hydroperoxy radical concentrations resulting from increased water vapor concentrations; and, 3) NO<sub>x</sub> concentrations resulting from reduced PAN. The most substantial and statistically significant (<i>p</i>&lt;0.05) increases in episode frequency occurred over the southeast and midatlantic U.S., largely as a result of 20% higher annual-average natural isoprene emissions. These results suggest a lengthening of the O<sub>3</sub> season over the eastern U.S. in a future climate to include late spring and early fall months. Increased chemical production and shorter average lifetime are two consistent features of the seasonal response of surface O<sub>3</sub>, with increased dry deposition loss rates contributing most to the reduced lifetime in all seasons except summer. Significant interannual variability is observed in the frequency of O<sub>3</sub> episodes and we find that it is necessary to utilize 5 years or more of simulation data in order to separate the effects of interannual variability and climate change on O<sub>3</sub> episodes in the eastern United States.

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