Factors Associated with Student Enrollment Decline in Selected Elementary Schools in Pinamungajan District II: Basis for a Strategic Enrollment Plan

This study examined enrollment trends and factors associated with enrollment decline in selected small-sized public elementary schools in Pinamungajan District II—Camugao, Tanibag, Punod, and Buhingtubig Elementary Schools—from School Year 2021–2022 to 2025–2026, as a basis for a strategic enrollment plan. A mixed-methods design was used, combining quantitative analysis of enrollment records and survey responses with qualitative analysis of open-ended responses to provide contextual explanations of the statistical patterns. Enrollment declined in all four schools, although the magnitude varied; Camugao remained comparatively stable, whereas Buhingtubig recorded the largest annual decline (9.8% in SY 2024–2025 and 5.8% in SY 2025–2026). In the combined descriptive assessment, community factors obtained the highest weighted mean (WM = 3.38), followed by institutional factors (WM = 3.36), demographic and school-perception factors (both WM = 3.30), and personal factors (WM = 3.28); these values indicate respondents’ level of agreement and are not interpreted as causal effects. Pearson correlations showed statistically significant positive associations between enrollment rate and school-related (r = .61, p < .001), socio-economic (r = .55, p < .001), and demographic factors (r = .42, p = .001). Qualitative themes concerning economic constraints, migration, school resources, policy implementation, school programs, and community support complemented these quantitative findings. The results support a context-sensitive strategic enrollment plan focused on learner monitoring, school-home-community partnerships, and school quality improvement.