Simulating Market Entry Rewards for Antibiotics Development.

Simulating Market Entry Rewards for Antibiotics Development.

Okhravi, Christopher;Callegari, Simone;McKeever, Steve;Kronlid, Carl;Baraldi, Enrico;Lindahl, Olof;Ciabuschi, Francesco;
the journal of law, medicine & ethics : a journal of the american society of law, medicine & ethics 2018 Vol. 46 pp. 32-42
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okhravi2018simulatingthe

Abstract

We design an agent based Monte Carlo model of antibiotics research and development (R&D) to explore the effects of the policy intervention known as Market Entry Reward (MER) on the likelihood that an antibiotic entering pre-clinical development reaches the market. By means of sensitivity analysis we explore the interaction between the MER and four key parameters: projected net revenues, R&D costs, venture capitalists discount rates, and large pharmaceutical organizations' financial thresholds. We show that improving revenues may be more efficient than reducing costs, and thus confirm that this pull-based policy intervention effectively stimulates antibiotics R&D.

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