[The application of ARIMA in forecasting the cases of rabies in China different human groups].

[The application of ARIMA in forecasting the cases of rabies in China different human groups].

He, J;Luo, L;Jin, R G;Li, J M;
zhonghua lao dong wei sheng zhi ye bing za zhi = zhonghua laodong weisheng zhiyebing zazhi = chinese journal of industrial hygiene and occupational diseases 2018 Vol. 36 pp. 512-515
335
he2018thezhonghua

Abstract

To understand the situation of rabies in China different human groups. Seasonal ARIMA model is established to make forecasts and to provide suggestions for human rabies controlling in China. Build a model with data during 2004-2013, and validate the model by data of 2014. Then predict the cases of rabies from 2015-2017. The long term trend is decreasing year by year, while seasonal effect is found that number of the third and fourth quarter are higher than others. The seasonal ARIMA model was built, whose residual are white noise. The RMAE in forecasting of peasants, students and scattered children are 19.10%、49.93% and 68.01%. The decreasing of rabies cases in China with time shows that the measures for control are effective. October for peasants, September for students, August for scattered children are critical period in future for rabies' control. Seasonal ARIMA model is a feasible model in forecasting the cases of rabies in China different groups in some way, error will be reduced by modeling separately for different wave sequence and combining with other models like ARIMA-GARCH.

Citation

ID: 69873
Ref Key: he2018thezhonghua
Use this key to autocite in SciMatic or Thesis Manager

References

Blockchain Verification

Account:
NFT Contract Address:
0x95644003c57E6F55A65596E3D9Eac6813e3566dA
Article ID:
69873
Unique Identifier:
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1001-9391.2018.07.009
Network:
Scimatic Chain (ID: 481)
Loading...
Blockchain Readiness Checklist
Authors
Abstract
Journal Name
Year
Title
5/5
Creates 1,000,000 NFT tokens for this article
Token Features:
  • ERC-1155 Standard NFT
  • 1 Million Supply per Article
  • Transferable via MetaMask
  • Permanent Blockchain Record
Blockchain QR Code
Scan with Saymatik Web3.0 Wallet

Saymatik Web3.0 Wallet