Abstract
With billions of people facing moderate or severe food insecurity, the
resilience of the global food supply will be of increasing concern due to the
effects of climate change and geopolitical events. In this paper we describe a
framework to better identify food security hotspots using a combination of
remote sensing, deep learning, crop yield modeling, and causal modeling of the
food distribution system. While we feel that the methods are adaptable to other
regions of the world, we focus our analysis on the wheat breadbasket of
northern India, which supplies a large percentage of the world's population. We
present a quantitative analysis of deep learning domain adaptation methods for
wheat farm identification based on curated remote sensing data from France. We
model climate change impacts on crop yields using the existing crop yield
modeling tool WOFOST and we identify key drivers of crop simulation error using
a longitudinal penalized functional regression. A description of a system
dynamics model of the food distribution system in India is also presented,
along with results of food insecurity identification based on seeding this
model with the predicted crop yields.
Citation
ID:
282050
Ref Key:
schlichting2024anticipatory