An integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke: The ASTRAL score

An integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke: The ASTRAL score

G. Ntaios;M. Faouzi;J. Ferrari;W. Lang;K. Vemmos;P. Michel;G. Ntaios;M. Faouzi;J. Ferrari;W. Lang;K. Vemmos;P. Michel;
Neurology 2012 Vol. 78 pp. 1916-1922
165
ntaios2012neurologyan

Abstract

Objective: To develop and validate a simple, integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) using variables readily available after emergency room admission. Methods: Logistic regression was performed in the derivation cohort of previously independent patients with AIS (Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne [ASTRAL]) to identify predictors of unfavorable outcome (3-month modified Rankin Scale score >2). An integer-based point-scoring system for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated by their β-coefficients; the overall score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The model was validated internally using a 2-fold cross-validation technique and externally in 2 independent cohorts (Athens and Vienna Stroke Registries). Results: Age (A), severity of stroke (S) measured by admission NIH Stroke Scale score, stroke onset to admission time (T), range of visual fields (R), acute glucose (A), and level of consciousness (L) were identified as independent predictors of unfavorable outcome in 1,645 patients in ASTRAL. Their β-coefficients were multiplied by 4 and rounded to the closest integer to generate the score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score in the ASTRAL cohort was 0.850. The score was well calibrated in the derivation ( p = 0.43) and validation cohorts (0.22 [Athens, n = 1,659] and 0.49 [Vienna, n = 653]). AUCs were 0.937 (Athens), 0.771 (Vienna), and 0.902 (when pooled). An ASTRAL score of 31 indicates a 50% likelihood of unfavorable outcome. Conclusions: The ASTRAL score is a simple integer-based score to predict functional outcome using 6 readily available items at hospital admission. It performed well in double external validation and may be a useful tool for clinical practice and stroke research. AIS= : acute ischemic stroke; ASTRAL= : Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne; ASTRAL score= : age, severity, time delay between stroke onset (or last proof of good health) and admission, range of visual field defect, acute glucose, and level of consciousness; AUC= : area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BI= : Barthel Index; BOAS= : Bologna Outcome Algorithm for Stroke; mRS= : modified Rankin Scale; NIHSS= : NIH Stroke Scale; SSV= : Six Simple Variables; VIF= : variance inflation factor

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