Joining worldwide efforts to understand the relationship between driving emotion and behavior, the current study aimed at examining the influence of emotions on driving intention transition. In Study 1, taking a car-following scene as an example, we designed the driving experiments to obtain the driving data in drivers’ natural states, and a driving intention prediction model was constructed based on the HMM. Then, we analyzed the probability distribution and transition probability of driving intentions. In Study 2, we designed a series of emotion-induction experiments for eight typical driving emotions, and the drivers with induced emotion participated in the driving experiments similar to Study 1. Then, we obtained the driving data of the drivers in eight typical emotional states, and the driving intention prediction models adapted to the driver’s different emotional states were constructed based on the HMM severally. Finally, we analyzed the probabilistic differences of driving intention in divers’ natural states and different emotional states, and the findings showed the changing law of driving intention probability distribution and transfer probability caused by emotion evolution. The findings of this study can promote the development of driving behavior prediction technology and an active safety early warning system.