Different math indices can be used to assess math potential at school entry. We evaluated whether standardized math achievement (TEMA-2 performance), core number abilities (dot enumeration, symbolic magnitude comparison), non-verbal intelligence (NVIQ) and visuo-spatial working memory (VSWM), in combination or separately, predicted mental addition problem solving speed over time. We assessed 267 children’s TEMA-2, magnitude comparison, dot enumeration, and VSWM abilities at school entry (5 years) and NVIQ at 8 years. Mental addition problem solving speed was assessed at 6, 8, and 10 years. Longitudinal path analysis supported a model in which dot enumeration performance ability profiles and previous mental addition speed predicted future mental addition speed on all occasions, supporting a componential account of math ability. Standardized math achievement and NVIQ predicted mental addition speed at specific time points, while VSWM and symbolic magnitude comparison did not contribute unique variance to the model. The implications of using standardized math achievement and dot enumeration ability to index math learning potential at school entry are discussed.