Predation and predator abundance may significantly affect bird populations, especially ground nesting species, because nest predation is often the major cause of nest failure. Predator control by means of culling is frequently employed to benefit threatened prey species or to increase the abundance of small game species for hunting. The red fox (Vulpes vulpes), a generalist mesopredator of global relevance, is a major target of predator control. Commonly, in central Europe, red fox culling efforts intended to benefit prey species remain restricted to small areas. It is unclear, however, whether such restricted-area culling effectively lowers predation risk at a site or whether red fox abundance is more important than culling in shaping predation risk. We conducted an experiment using 273 camera supervised artificial nests at multiple study sites in clusters of hunting concessions with or without targeted fox culling in a fragmented montane forest landscape in Germany.Using generalized additive models, we assessed whether incentivized recreational culling of red foxes was associated with local reductions in an index of predation risk and fox occurrence probability, or whether both were explained by red fox abundance instead. Final models indicated that restricted-area culling of red foxes was not associated with local reductions in predation risk, nor lower probability of a fox sighting, even for the plots with the largest hunting bags. Predation risk at a plot instead appeared to be driven by variation in the abundance of red foxes in the landscape surrounding the plots. After accounting for fox abundance, we found no additional relationship of artificial nest predation risk with landscape configuration.Our results imply that the scale and intensity of predator control achieved by incentivized recreational hunting was ineffective at altering fox abundance patterns and associated predation risk. We thus find no evidence to support incentives for uncoordinated recreational red fox culling as a conservation measure.