evaluating the improvements of the bolam model of the ispra sistema idro-meteo-mare on the december 2008 flood event in rome
;M. Casaioli;B. Lastoria;S. Mariani;M. Bussettini
journal of the medical library association2010Vol. 25pp. 135-141
127
casaioli2010advancesevaluating
Abstract
The Sistema Idro-Meteo-Mare is an integrated meteo-marine
forecasting chain for the Mediterranean basin. The recent update of the
meteorological segment, based on the hydrostatic BOlogna Limited
Area Model (BOLAM), gives the opportunity for a comparative
verification study on a Mediterranean cyclone. The 10–12 December 2008
flood event in Rome has been chosen as case study. This
disastrous event was claimed to be an extreme one by mass-media;
however, its return time is shown here to be about 5 years. The
Mediterranean cyclone responsible for the flood offers a tough case
study in order to verify the model's ability in reproducing the
evolution of meso-synoptic features in the Mediterranean
environment. A qualitative comparison, employing satellite data and
derived products, is performed. Results suggest that the upgraded model provides a more realistic representation
of the cyclone warm sector – where the main rainfall peak took place – whereas the error in the cyclone trajectory
and shape evolution is less affected by the BOLAM
improvement.