economic growth rate may be high in spite of a decreasing working-age population in finland

economic growth rate may be high in spite of a decreasing working-age population in finland

;Pekka Parkkinen
chempluschem 2004 Vol. 40 pp. -
148
parkkinen2004finnish

Abstract

This article examines the possibilities for the growth of real income in Finland in a situation where the population is aging at a record rate. In contrast to other European countries, no larger age groups were born in Finland after the 1940s. Therefore, the labor force will decrease in long run, even though an abundant amount of labor reserves still exist in Finland after the exceptionally deep economic depression experienced in the previous decade. Finlands real income has been calculated as the product of the labor input and productivity per hour worked. The rate of change in productivity has been estimated on the basis of the historical development of labor productivity. On the basis of an analysis of labor input and productivity per hour worked, the real income of Finland per capita could rise to one-and-a-half times what it is now in one decade and a half, even if the working-age population decreased markedly and even if the number of hours worked per employed person declined at the traditional rate. Increasing immigration is not the only solution to the challenges of an aging and diminishing working-age population. By employing domestic labor reserves and improving productivity, reasonable economic growth rate can be achieved and at the same time the problems caused by uncontrolled immigration can be avoided.

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