a comparison of the var model and the pc factor model in forecasting inflation in montenegro
;Lipovina-Božović Milena
Aesthetic plastic surgery2013Vol. 58pp. 115-135
101
milena2013ekonomskia
Abstract
Montenegro started using the euro in 2002 and regained independence in 2006.
Its main economic partners are European countries, yet inflation movements
in Montenegro do not coincide with consumer price fluctuations in the
eurozone. Trying to develop a useful forecasting model for Montenegrin
inflation, we compare the results of a three-variable vector autoregression
(VAR) model, and a principle component (PC) factor model starting with
twelve variables. The estimation period is January 2001 to December 2012,
and the control months are the first six months of 2013. The results show
that in forecasting inflation, despite a high level of Montenegrin economic
dependence on international developments, more reliable forecasts are
achieved with the use of additional information on a larger number of
factors, which includes domestic economic activity.