In this work, the theoretical description of the 4- and 3-substituted-cinnamic acid esterification with different electron donating and electron withdrawing groups was performed at the B3LYP and M06-2X levels, as a two-step process: the O-protonation and the nucleophile attack by ethanol. In parallel, an experimental work devoted to the synthesis and characterization of the substituted-cinnamate esters has also been performed. In order to quantify the substituents effects, quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models based on the atomic charges, Fukui functions and the Frontier Effective-for-Reaction Molecular Orbitals (FERMO) energies were investigated. In fact, the Fukui functions, ƒ+C and ƒ−O, indicated poor correlations for each individual step, and in contrast with the general literature, the O-protonation step is affected both by the FERMO energies and the O-charges of the carbonyl group. Since the process was shown to not be totally described by either charge- or frontier-orbitals, it is proposed to be frontier-charge-miscere controlled. Moreover, the observed trend for the experimental reaction yields suggests that the electron withdrawing groups favor the reaction and the same was observed for Step 2, which can thus be pointed out as the determining step.