Abstract
This paper proposes an empirical analysis of the
sensitivity of Discrete Choice Model (DCM) to the
size of the spatial units used as choice set (which
relates to the well-known Modifiable Areal Unit
Problem). Job's location choices in Brussels (Belgium)
are used as the case study. DCMs are implemented within
different Land Use and Transport Interactions (LUTI)
models (UrbanSim, ILUTE) to forecast jobs or household
location choices. Nevertheless, no studies have
assessed their sensitivity to the size of the Basic
Spatial Units (BSU) in an urban context. The results
show significant differences in parameter estimates
between BSUs. Assuming that new jobs are distributed
among the study area proportionally to the utility
level predicted by the DCM for each BSU (as in a LUTI
model), it is also demonstrated that the spatial
distribution of these new jobs varies with the size
of the BSUs. These findings mean that the scale of
the BSU used in the model can influence the output
of a LUTI model relying on DCM to forecast location
choices of agents and, therefore, have important
operational implications for land-use planning.
Citation
ID:
160751
Ref Key:
jones2015regionforecasting