A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics

A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics

Arianna Agosto;Paolo Giudici;Agosto, Arianna;Giudici, Paolo;
risks 2020 Vol. 8 pp. 77-
161
agosto2020risksa

Abstract

We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19, which can heavily impact health, economics and finance. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are exemplified from some observed series.

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