Influence of proxy data uncertainty on data assimilation for the past climate
Abstract
Data assimilation (DA) is an emerging topic in palaeoclimatology and one of
the key challenges in this field. Assimilating proxy-based continental mean
temperature reconstructions into the MPI-ESM model showed a lack of
information propagation to small spatial scales . Here,
we investigate whether this lack of regional skill is due to the methodology
or to errors in the assimilated reconstructions. Error separation is
fundamental, as it can lead to improvements in DA methods. We address the
question by performing a new set of simulations, using two different sets of
target data; the proxy-based PAGES 2K reconstructions (DA-P scheme), and the
HadCRUT3v instrumental observations (DA-I scheme). Again, we employ
ensemble-member selection DA using the MPI-ESM model, and assimilate Northern
Hemisphere (NH) continental mean temperatures; the simulated period is
1850–1949 AD. Both DA schemes follow the large-scale target and observed
climate variations well, but the assimilation of instrumental data improves
the performance. This improvement cannot be seen for Asia, where the limited
instrumental coverage leads to errors in the target data and low skill for
the DA-I scheme. No skill on small spatial scales is found for either of the
two DA schemes, demonstrating that errors in the assimilated data are not the
main reason for the unrealistic representation of the regional temperature
variability in Europe and the NH. It can thus be concluded that assimilating
continental mean temperatures is not ideal for providing skill on small
spatial scales.
Keywords
statistics
Biology (General)
Medicine
Information technology
Science
physics
environmental sciences
environmental pollution
environmental protection
telecommunication
computer engineering. computer hardware
electronic computers. computer science
geology
mining engineering. metallurgy
mechanics of engineering. applied mechanics
Citation
ID:
44773
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