Abstract
Rapid industrialization and reliance on fossil fuels have exacerbated air pollution in the National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi, leading to severe public health crises alongside escalating greenhouse gas emissions. This study quantifies the air quality and human health co-benefits of transitioning the regional power and industrial sectors toward renewable energy. We develop an integrated modeling framework coupling the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to high-resolution regional emission inventories and the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). Three policy pathways for 2035 are evaluated: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Moderate Renewable Transition (50% renewable penetration), and Ambitious Decarbonization (80% renewable penetration). Our findings indicate that under the Ambitious Decarbonization scenario, annual population-weighted mean fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations across Delhi-NCR decrease by 28.4 μg/m³, representing a 26.2% reduction relative to BAU projections. This air quality improvement is estimated to prevent approximately 14,800 (95% CI: 10,200–19,100) premature mortalities annually from ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. Monetized health co-benefits, derived using the Value of a Statistical Life approach, amount to approximately 11.2 billion USD annually, substantially offsetting capital expenditure required for renewable grid expansion. These results demonstrate that aggressive clean energy targets generate immediate, localized public health dividends, providing compelling justification for accelerated climate policy implementation in developing megacities.
