Abstract
This study investigates the macroeconomic impacts of global supply chain disruptions on the Turkish economy within the framework of international trade dynamics. Utilizing monthly data spanning from January 2016 to December 2023, the empirical analysis employs an unrestricted Vector Autoregression (VAR) model alongside Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). Global supply chain pressures are captured using the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), while domestic macroeconomic variables include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Industrial Production Index (IPI), import price index, and the real effective exchange rate. The empirical findings reveal that positive shocks to global supply chain pressures exert statistically significant, persistent inflationary pressures in Turkey, mediated predominantly through rising import prices and intermediate good supply constraints. Furthermore, domestic industrial output exhibits a sharp short-term contraction following a supply chain shock before stabilizing, underscoring the structural reliance of the Turkish manufacturing sector on foreign intermediate inputs. The variance decomposition indicates that global supply chain shocks explain a substantial portion of the forecast error variance in domestic consumer and import price inflation. These results highlight the vulnerability of emerging market economies to cross-border logistics bottlenecks and emphasize the necessity of structural industrial policies focused on supply chain diversification, localized strategic production, and flexible trade logistics.
