Abstract
Protracted refugee situations present acute, enduring challenges to human development, particularly impacting adolescent cognitive functioning, psychological resilience, and long-term educational attainment. This study examines the longitudinal psycho-social determinants of secondary school progression and completion among Burundian refugee adolescents living within Tanzania's Kigoma region camps (Nyarugusu and Nduta). Utilizing a four-wave prospective cohort design spanning four years (2018–2022), we tracked 1,142 adolescents aged 12 to 16 at baseline to assess how chronic exposure to encampment, structural precarity, and associated psychiatric morbidities (depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress) mediate formal educational milestones. Structural equation modeling and discrete-time hazard analyses revealed that while baseline trauma symptoms exerted an immediate negative effect on primary-to-secondary transition rates, chronic hopelessness—engendered by Tanzania's strict encampment policies and a lack of recognized durable solutions—functioned as the strongest longitudinal predictor of academic attrition (adjusted Hazard Ratio = 1.78, 95% CI [1.45, 2.18]). Conversely, high domain-specific hope and localized peer psycho-social support networks significantly attenuated the risk of school dropout, even after controlling for household food insecurity and parental education. Gender-disaggregated analyses further demonstrated that adolescent girls experienced elevated vulnerability to depressive symptomatology leading to domestic withdrawal, whereas boys exhibited higher vulnerability to disengagement stemming from restricted labor-market futures. These findings underscore that educational interventions in protracted encampment cannot rely solely on infrastructural supply; they must systematically integrate contextualized mental health support and address the institutional structures of immobility that stifle adolescent aspirations.
