unemployment hysteresis in the “nordic kitten”: evidence from five estonian regions
;Furuoka Fumitaka
clinical and experimental pharmacology & physiology2015Vol. 62pp. 631-642
244
fumitaka2015panoeconomicusunemployment
Abstract
Unemployment hysteresis is a much discussed and researched topic in
macroeconomics. The present paper examined unemployment hysteresis in five
Estonian regions. It used two panel data methods, namely, the Im-Pesaran-Shin
(IPS) test and the Fourier Im-Pesaran-Shin (FIPS) test. The originality and
value of this paper is that this is the first study that uses the panel unit
root tests to examine unemployment dynamics in the Estonian regions. The
findings revealed that the unemployment rates in the Estonian regions could
be best described as a stationary process. This result is in line with the
natural rate hypothesis. A research implication is that this study has
illustrated that nonlinear tests could be an appropriate approach to examine
unemployment hysteresis because other methods may fail to reject the null
hypothesis. A practical implication of this study is that it sheds light on
the nature of unemployment dynamics in Estonia at the regional level. As the
findings revealed, the unemployment rates in the Estonian regions had the
meanreversion property. Therefore, the higher-than-normal unemployment rates
are likely to return to the natural level even in the absence of intervention
policies initiated by the government or policy makers.